The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers

dc.creatorRosero Bixby, Luis
dc.creatorMiller, Timothy
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-07T15:04:13Z
dc.date.available2022-01-07T15:04:13Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractThe reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in 53 countries.es_ES
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Sociales::Centro Centroamericano de Población (CCP)es_ES
dc.identifier.citationhttps://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.3
dc.identifier.ismn1728-4414
dc.identifier.issn1728-5305
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10669/85537
dc.language.isoenges_ES
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.sourceVienna Yearbook of Population Research 20(online first), 2022es_ES
dc.subjectCOVID-19es_ES
dc.subjectNúmero reproductivo Res_ES
dc.subjectMétodos en demografíaes_ES
dc.titleThe mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographerses_ES
dc.typeartículo original

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