The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers
Archivos
Fecha
2022
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Rosero Bixby, Luis
Miller, Timothy
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
The reproduction number R is a key indicator used to monitor the dynamics of
Covid-19 and to assess the e ects of infection control strategies that frequently have
high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net
reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers
may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of
Covid-19. This article is intended to be a primer for understanding and estimating
R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers
of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days.
We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks have
changed over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We then provide estimates of
these weights, and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the
first pandemic year in 53 countries.
Descripción
Palabras clave
COVID-19, Número reproductivo R, Métodos en demografía