Un abordaje multinomial integral para entender la sucesión familiar agrícola en Costa Rica
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Fecha
2020-12
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Rodríguez Lizano, Víctor
Montero Vega, Mercedes
Mesén Vega, Rafael
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Título del volumen
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Resumen
La mayoría de estudios cuantitativos orientados
a explicar la sucesión familiar agrícola
se basan en modelos de respuesta binaria.
Usualmente estos modelos han exhibido
un bajo poder explicativo, lo cual se ha atribuido
a que por lo general solo toman en
cuenta variables socioeconómicas tradicionales
y simplifican un fenómeno tan complejo
como lo es la sucesión familiar agrícola
a solo dos posibles respuestas. Dado
lo anterior, el principal objetivo de esta investigación
fue analizar el peso de tres tipos
de variables sobre la sucesión generacional
agrícola. Variables socioeconómicas, el nivel
del Proceso de Integración Generacional
y variables de percepción. La investigación
se llevó a cabo en Zarcero, Costa Rica, con
un total de 126 agricultores de hortalizas. La
probabilidad de sucesión se dividió en tres
niveles: muy alta, media y muy baja. Los datos
se analizaron a través de tres modelos
multinomiales. El modelo que incluyó los
tres tipos de variables, anteriormente mencionados,
es el que mejor predice la sucesión
(79% de predicción correcta). Así mismo,
el modelo III, que solo incluye variables
de percepción y el nivel del Proceso de Integración
Generacional, explica mejor la sucesión
que aquel (modelo II) que solo toma en
cuenta las variables socioeconómicas. Estos
resultados representan una evolución en la
forma como se estudia la sucesión familiar
agrícola, ya que se determinó que los factores
de percepción y relacionados con la
inclusión de los jóvenes en la finca son los
que mejor explican la sucesión familiar agrícola.
The vast majority of quantitative studies aimed at explaining family farm succession are based on binary response models. Usually these models have exhibited low explanatory power, which has been attributed to the fact that they generally take into account only socioeconomic variables and simplify a phenomenon as complex as agricultural family succession to only two possible answers. Given the abovementioned situation, the main objective of this research was to analyze the weight of three types of variables on family farm succession. These three variables are: Socioeconomic variables, the level of the Generational Integration Process and psychological variables. The fieldwork was conducted in Zarcero, Costa Rica, with a total of 126 horticultural farmers. The probability of succession was divided into three levels: very high, medium and very low. The data were analyzed through three multinomial models. The model that included the three types of variables mentioned above is the one that best predicts the succession (79% correct prediction). Likewise, model III, which only includes psychological variables and the level of the Generational Integration Process, better explains the succession than that (model II) that only takes into account socioeconomic variables. These results represent a step forward in the way family farm succession is studied, since it was determined that the psychological factors and those related to the inclusion of young people on the farm are those that best explain agricultural family succession.
The vast majority of quantitative studies aimed at explaining family farm succession are based on binary response models. Usually these models have exhibited low explanatory power, which has been attributed to the fact that they generally take into account only socioeconomic variables and simplify a phenomenon as complex as agricultural family succession to only two possible answers. Given the abovementioned situation, the main objective of this research was to analyze the weight of three types of variables on family farm succession. These three variables are: Socioeconomic variables, the level of the Generational Integration Process and psychological variables. The fieldwork was conducted in Zarcero, Costa Rica, with a total of 126 horticultural farmers. The probability of succession was divided into three levels: very high, medium and very low. The data were analyzed through three multinomial models. The model that included the three types of variables mentioned above is the one that best predicts the succession (79% correct prediction). Likewise, model III, which only includes psychological variables and the level of the Generational Integration Process, better explains the succession than that (model II) that only takes into account socioeconomic variables. These results represent a step forward in the way family farm succession is studied, since it was determined that the psychological factors and those related to the inclusion of young people on the farm are those that best explain agricultural family succession.
Descripción
Este artículo es un producto del proyecto de investigación del CIEDA denominado: Desarrollo de la bioeconomia como herramienta para el desarrollo rural (822-B8-A41)
Palabras clave
Agricultura familiar, Horticultura, Transferencia intergeneracional, Modelaje econométrico, Planificación agrícola, Family farm, Horticulture, Intergenerational transfer, Multinomial modelling, Agricultural planning