Revista de Matemáticas 27(1)
URI permanente para esta colección
Examinar
Envíos recientes
Ítem Dengue model with early-life stage of vectors and age-structure within host(2019-12) Sánchez Peña, Fabio Ariel; Calvo Alpízar, Juan GabrielWe construct an epidemic model for the transmission of dengue fever with an early-life stage in the vector dynamics and age-structure within hosts. The early-life stage of the vector is modeled via a general function that supports multiple vector densities. The basic reproductive number and vector demographic threshold are computed to study the local and global stability of the infection-free state. A numerical framework is implemented and simulations are performed.Ítem Transmission dynamics of Dengue in Costa Rica: The role of hospitalizations(2019-12) Sánchez Peña, Fabio Ariel; Arroyo Esquivel, Jorge; Vásquez Brenes, Paola AndreaFor decades, dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials in tropical and subtropical countries around the world. We construct a compartmental model that includes the role of hospitalized individuals in the transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica. The basic reproductive number, R0, is computed, as well as a sensitivity analysisonR0parameters. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established. Numerical simulations under specific parameter scenarios are performed to determine optimal prevention/control strategies.Ítem Climate-Driven Statistical Models as Effective Predictors of Local Dengue Incidence in Costa Rica: A Generalized Additive Model and Random Forest Approach(2019-12) Vásquez Brenes, Paola Andrea; Loría García, Antonio; Sánchez Peña, Fabio Ariel; Barboza Chinchilla, Luis AlbertoClimate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In CostaRica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, and public health repercussions. Using the number of dengue reported cases and climate data from 2007-2017, we fitted a prediction model ap-plying a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Random Forest (RF)approach, which allowed us to retrospectively predict the relative risk of dengue in five climatological diverse municipalities around the country.Ítem A two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear reinfection(2020) Calvo Alpízar, Juan Gabriel; Hernádez Alvarado, Alberto José; Porter, Mason A.; Sánchez Peña, Fabio ArielThe propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative example, we examine interactions between urban and rural populations on the dynamics of disease spreading. Using a compartmental framework of susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIeS) dynamics with some level of immunity, we formulate a model that allows nonlinear reinfection. We investigate the effects of population movement in a simple scenario: a case with two patches, which allows us to model population movement between urban and rural areas. To study the dynamics of the system, we compute a basic reproduction number for each population (urban and rural). We also compute steady states, determine the local stability of the disease-free steady state, and identify conditions for the existence of endemic steady states. From our analysis and computational experiments, we illustrate that population movement plays an important role in disease dynamics. In some cases, it can be rather beneficial, as it can enlarge the region of stability of a disease-free steady state.