Southern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and Their Relation to Australian Hydroclimatic Variation: Potential Precipitation and Streamflow Long-Range Forecasting

Abstract

An exploratory analysis of the relationship between Southern Hemisphere’s (SH) atmospheric/oceanic variables and streamflow and precipitation variation in Australia is presented. A 2.5o x2.5o gridded data of 700mb geopotential heights (Z700) for the SH, obtained from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis), were used to characterize the atmosphere. A rotated principal component analysis of the data identified the principal modes of variability. The trends observed in the Annular and Tropical Influence modes from 1948 to 2000 suggest increased pressures in mid-latitudes and lower pressures in the tropics. The causes behind these trends are unknown and require more research. It is expected that our study will show significant links between circulation and oceanic patterns and hydroclimatic variation in Australia. The final objective of this ongoing study is to provide a basis for long-range precipitation and streamflow forecasts throughout Australia