Análisis de los casos de intoxicación reportados al Centro Nacional de Control de Intoxicaciones de Costa Rica durante el período de COVID-19 entre los años 2020 y 2022
Fecha
2024-07-27
Tipo
tesis de maestría
Autores
Gutiérrez Vega, Edgardo
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Resumen
La pandemia provocada por el SARS-CoV-2 y las restricciones sanitarias provocaron cambios drásticos en los estilos de vida y hábitos de la población. El objetivo principal de este trabajo fue determinar cambios significativos durante el período COVID-19 (2020 a 2022) en comparación con años anteriores (2015 a 2019), utilizando los informes recibidos por el Centro Nacional de Control de Intoxicaciones de Costa Rica.
En primer lugar, se realizó un análisis de agrupamiento jerárquico utilizando Alineamiento Temporal Dinámico (DTW) para identificar series temporales relevantes basadas en sexo y grupos de edad para cada causa de intoxicación. Luego, se centró el análisis en estas series temporales para cada causa de intoxicación y se analizó si sufrieron cambios cuando inició la pandemia. Se utilizó un enfoque de pronóstico utilizando modelos ARIMA estacional, ARIMA con variable de intervención y Prophet para determinar el comportamiento esperado después del inicio de la pandemia.
Los resultados mostraron que los niños de 0 a 4 años fueron afectados principalmente por intoxicaciones accidentales, con una tendencia decreciente durante la pandemia. Respecto a los intentos de suicidio con medicamentos, se analizaron dos grupos principales: mujeres de 12 a 19 años y adultos de 20 a 59 años, ambos mostrando un aumento en los casos. Se analizaron los reportes de adicción a drogas de abuso en personas de 12 a 19 años y mayores de 20 años, presentando estos últimos un aumento fuera de lo esperado. Para reacciones a medicamentos, los menores de 15 años presentaron una disminución de casos en 2020 y 2021, mientras que los de 15 años o más reportaron un aumento en el mismo periodo. Las intoxicaciones ocupacionales con pesticidas estuvieron dentro de lo esperado.
The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 and health restrictions derived from it, caused drastic changes in the lifestyles and habits of the population. The main objective of this work was to determine significant changes during the COVID-19 period (2020 to 2022) compared to previous years (2015 to 2019), using reports received by the Centro Nacional de Control de Intoxicaciones de Costa Rica. First, a hierarchical clustering analysis was performed using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to identify relevant time series based on sex and age groups for each cause of intoxication. The analysis was then focused on these time series for each cause of intoxication, and it was analyzed whether they underwent changes when the pandemic began. A forecasting approach was used using seasonal ARIMA, ARIMA with intervention variable and Prophet models to determine the expected behavior after the onset of the pandemic. The results showed that children aged 0 to 4 years were mainly affected by accidental intoxications, with a decreasing trend during the pandemic. Regarding suicide attempts with medications, two main groups were analyzed: women from 12 to 19 years old and adults from 20 to 59 years old, both showing an increase in cases. The reports of addiction to drugs of abuse in people between 12 and 19 years old and those over 20 years old were analyzed, with the latter presenting an increase outside of what was expected. For drug reactions, those under 15 years of age reported a decrease in cases in 2020 and 2021, while those 15 years of age or older reported an increase in the same period. Occupational intoxications with pesticides were within expectations.
The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 and health restrictions derived from it, caused drastic changes in the lifestyles and habits of the population. The main objective of this work was to determine significant changes during the COVID-19 period (2020 to 2022) compared to previous years (2015 to 2019), using reports received by the Centro Nacional de Control de Intoxicaciones de Costa Rica. First, a hierarchical clustering analysis was performed using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to identify relevant time series based on sex and age groups for each cause of intoxication. The analysis was then focused on these time series for each cause of intoxication, and it was analyzed whether they underwent changes when the pandemic began. A forecasting approach was used using seasonal ARIMA, ARIMA with intervention variable and Prophet models to determine the expected behavior after the onset of the pandemic. The results showed that children aged 0 to 4 years were mainly affected by accidental intoxications, with a decreasing trend during the pandemic. Regarding suicide attempts with medications, two main groups were analyzed: women from 12 to 19 years old and adults from 20 to 59 years old, both showing an increase in cases. The reports of addiction to drugs of abuse in people between 12 and 19 years old and those over 20 years old were analyzed, with the latter presenting an increase outside of what was expected. For drug reactions, those under 15 years of age reported a decrease in cases in 2020 and 2021, while those 15 years of age or older reported an increase in the same period. Occupational intoxications with pesticides were within expectations.