A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperature

Abstract

While significant progress has been made in seasonal climate prediction in recent years, summertime mid-latitude climate prediction remains problematic [e.g., Gershunov and Cayan, 2003]. Several previous studies have explored the skill of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (PSST) in the seasonal prediction of various atmospheric variables [e.g., Barnett and Preisendorfer, 1987],but few have focused on the value of PSST in forecasting summer conditions [e.g., Douville, 2003]. Advances in summertime temperature forecasts are important for planning in different economic sectors, such as the energy industry. This issue is especially important in California, where the summer peak energy demand is about 50% higher than that in winter, in response to heavy loads from air conditioners, pumping water, and other seasonal issues.