Managing populations after a disease outbreak: exploration of epidemiological consequences of managed host reintroduction following disease-driven host decline

Abstract

Disease outbreaks in wild populations worldwide can result in widespread mortality within populations, with the recovery of individuals being rare. An example of this population is the sunflower sea star Pycnopodia helianthioides to an unidentified disease known as sea star wasting disease. Pycnopodia down control of kelp grazers in rocky reefs across the Northeastern Pacific coast. This, combined with the massive declines in kelp coverage observed during the 2015–2016 marine heat wave observed in the Northeastern Pacific, has sparked an interest in reintroducing Pycnopodia individuals on the coast to potentially assist in the recovery of the populations. However, the epidemiological implications of reintroducing healthy sea stars into the wild populations are an under-explored question. This work explores this question using a dynamical population model of Pycnopodia. This analysis provides valuable information on timing and intensity for restoring Pycnopodia populations.