Climate change-based modeling of potential land use arrangements for coffee (coffea arabica) and forest in Costa Rica
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Fecha
2017-12
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Coto Fonseca, Alberto Francisco
Rojas Alvarado, Carlos Alonso
Molina Murillo, Sergio Andrés
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Resumen
Besides the need to reduce its own emissions, the challenge of the agricultural sector worldwide is also to adapt to a
changing and more variable climate. Coffee is an important crop in Costa Rica based on cultivated area and the number of
families connected to this activity that has a long historical tradition. In this context, the potential distribution shifts of coffee
production based on climate change scenarios have been identified and targeted in this study. Bioclimatic variables along with
elevation were used to evaluate changes in suitable areas for coffee production under the framework of four climate change
scenarios for the year 2070. Results suggest that the highlands have a high probability of being suitable for coffee under all
four scenarios, and unsuitability seems to be associated with the lowlands. All four climate change scenarios showed high
overlap between the projected suitable areas for coffee and current forested areas. This investigation suggests that the
long-term management of coffee production in Costa Rica should carefully consider climate change given its potential conflict
with other land uses and associated socioeconomic implications
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Palabras clave
climate change, coffee, models, forests, land use, 633.73 Café