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A multilayer network model of Covid-19: implications in public health policy in Costa Rica

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Date
2022-05
Author
Sánchez Peña, Fabio Ariel
Calvo Alpízar, Juan Gabriel
Mery, Gustavo
García Puerta, Yury Elena
Vásquez Brenes, Paola Andrea
Barboza Chinchilla, Luis Alberto
Pérez Rosales, María Dolores
Rivas, Tania
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Abstract
Successful partnerships between researchers, experts, and public health authorities have been critical to navigate the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide. In this collaboration, mathematical models have played a decisive role in informing public policy, with findings effectively translated into public health measures that have shaped the pandemic in Costa Rica. As a result of interdisciplinary and cross-institutional collaboration, we constructed a multilayer network model that incorporates a diverse contact structure for each individual. In July 2020, we used this model to test the effect of lifting restrictions on population mobility after a so-called “epidemiological fence” imposed to contain the country’s first big wave of cases. Later, in August 2020, we used it to predict the effects of an open and close strategy (the Hammer and Dance). Scenarios constructed in July 2020 showed that lifting restrictions on population mobility after less than three weeks of epidemiological fence would produce a sharp increase in cases. Results from scenarios in August 2020 indicated that the Hammer and Dance strategy would only work with 50% of the population adhering to mobility restrictions. The development, evolution, and applications of a multilayer network model of Covid-19 in Costa Rica has guided decision-makers to anticipate implementing sanitary measures and contributed to gain valuable time to increase hospital capacity.
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10669/86596
External link to the item
10.48550/arXiv.2109.04218
https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.04218
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  • Repositorios universitarios

  • Repositorio del SIBDI-UCR
  • Biblioteca Digital del CIICLA
  • Repositorio Documental Rafael Obregón Loría (CIHAC)
  • Biblioteca Digital Carlos Melendez (CIHAC)
  • Repositorio de Fotografías
  • Colección de videos de UPA-VAS
  • Sitios recomendados

  • Buscador regional de LA Referencia
  • Buscador del Open ROAR
  • Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)
  • Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
  • Redalyc
  • Redes sociales

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Contact Us | Send Feedback
Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Costa Rica. Algunos derechos reservados. Este repositorio funciona con DSpace.