3 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS CONTENIDO Pág. A í ulo 5 Muerte de monos Congo (Alouatta palliata) en Costa Rica durante la sequía producto del evento El Niño 2015-2016 JOSÉ ALBERTO RETANA 14 El régimen pluviométrico en áreas montañosas de Costa Rica: Análisis del régimen de precipitación en la sección Suroccidental de la Cordillera de Tilarán, zona de influencia de la Reserva Biológica Alberto Manuel Brenes MARVIN E. QUESADA 21 Variabilidad y conexiones climáticas de la zona de convergencia intertropical del Pacífico Este EVELYN QUIRÓS, HUGO G. HIDALGO 37 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 ERIC J. ALFARO,,, HUGO G. HIDALGO1,2, NATALIE P. MORA1, PAULA M. PÉREZ, BERNY FALLAS 53 Comportamiento histórico de la emisión de gases con efecto invernadero del sector agropecuario de Costa Rica JOHNNY MONTENEGRO 37 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 ERIC J. ALFARO , , , HUGO G. HIDALGO , , NATALIE P. MORA , PAULA M. PÉRE), BERNY FALLA“ Abstract “ta ti g , the Regio al Cli ate Outlook Fo u s o RCOFs ha e take pla e i diffe e t Lati A e i a ou t ies, as a effo t to ge e ate li ati p edi tio p odu ts. “i e , the Fo u is o ga ized i Ce t al A e i a the Regio al Wate Resou es Co ittee CRRH , hi h is the te h i al se eta iat of the Ce t al A e i a I teg atio “ ste , o “ICA, espo si le fo the oo di atio of a ti ities elated to eathe fo e asts, li ate, ate esou es a d li ate ha ge assess e t. “i e a d afte e e RCOF, eeti gs a e ei g held ith diffe e t stakeholde s i o de to stud the possi le li ate i pa ts o a ious so io-e o o i se to s of the Isth us. I this o k, li ate p edi tio aps of p e ipitatio p odu ed the fo u s e e e aluated. Fo this pu pose, ai gauge statio s e e used alo g ith a d g id poi ts f o TRMM a d CHIRP“ data sets espe ti el . The u ulati e seaso al ai fall e e also o pa ed ith othe th ee pe spe ti es: the outputs of the Cli ate P edi ta ilit Tool CPT ; the p edi tio ased o the pe siste e of the o ditio s o se ed i the p e ious o th of the fo u RCOF ; a d a othe o e al a s p edi ti g eut al o ditio s. The esults sho ed that the RCOFs aps ha e a alue added fo de isio - ake s, as ost of the ti e the sho skilled p edi ti e a ilit . The p ospe ts ased upo the p edi tio of al a s- eut al o ditio s sho ed the least p edi ti e a ilit , ea i g that aki g de isio s ithout taki g i to o side atio the li ate outlook i fo atio is o se tha usi g the RCOF aps. Mo eo e , the i lusio of o je ti e tools a d gi i g the a o e spe ifi eight i the o se sus ap p odu tio ould e a fa to that i eases the p edi ti e a ilit of the fo u s. KEYWORDS: “EA“ONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION, CENTRAL AMERICA, REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM“ Resumen Desde el año , se ha lle ado a a o e dife e tes países de Lati oa é i a los Fo os Regio ales de P edi ió Cli áti a o el o jeti o de ge e a p odu tos de p edi ió li áti a. E A é i a Ce t al, este fo o es o ga izado desde el año po el Co ité Regio al de Re u sos Hid áuli os o CRRH, el ual es la se eta ía té i a del “iste a de I teg a ió Ce t oa e i a o o “ICA, e a gada de oo di a las a ti idades ela io adas al p o ósti o del tie po, li a, e u sos híd i os a io li áti o. A pa ti del año , se ealiza eu io es luego del fo o de p edi ió li áti a, ue tie e o o fi alidad estudia los posi les i pa tos li áti os e disti tos se to es so ioe o ó i os del ist o. E este t a ajo se e alua o apas de p edi ió li áti a de p e ipita ió p odu idos po el fo o, usa do u o ju to de esta io es plu io ét i as, así o o pu tos de ejilla de los o ju tos de datos TRMM CHIRP“, espe ti a e te. Los a u ulados esta io ales de la p e ipita ió ta ié fue o o pa ados o ot as t es pe spe ti as: las salidas de la He a ie ta de P edi ti ilidad Cli áti a o CPT, la p edi ió asada e la pe siste ia de las o di io es o se adas el es p e io al fo o u a asada sie p e e la p edi ió de o di io es eut ales. Los esultados ost a o ue los apas del fo o tie e u alo ag egado pa a los to ado es de de isió , a ue ost a o ha ilidad p edi ti a la a o ía de las e es. Las pe spe ti as Ce te fo Geoph si al Resea h, U i e sit of Costa Ri a. “ hool of Ph si s, U i e sit of Costa Ri a. Ce te fo Resea h i Ma i e “ ie es a d Li olog , U i e sit of Costa Ri a. H d olog Depa t e t, Costa Ri a I situte fo Ele t i it . E ails: e i k.alfa o@u .a . , hugo.hidalgo@u .a . , atali. o asa di@u .a . , paula.pe ez@u .a . , fallasl@i e.go. 38 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 asadas e la p edi ió sie p e de o di io es eut ales fue o las ue ost a o la e o ha ilidad p edi ti a, lo ue sig ifi a ue to a de isio es si to a e ue ta la pe spe ti a li áti a, es peo ue usa los apas del fo o. Ta ié , el da le u peso a o de t o del p o eso de o se so al uso he a ie tas o jeti as de p edi ió li áti a, pod ía se u fa to ue au e te la ha ilidad p edi ti a de los fo os. PALABRAS CLAVE: PREDICCIÓN CLIMÁTICA E“TACIONAL, AMÉRICA CENTRAL, FORO“ REGIONALE“ DE PREDICCIÓN CLIMÁTICA. 1. Introduction stakeholde s. The e o e ded ethodolog fo the fo e ast is uite si ple a d this fo e ast is late As Maldo ado, Alfa o, Fallas, a d Al a ado i teg ated geog aphi all ith the oo di ated e plai , Ce t al A e i a Naio al Meteo ologi al i puts f o the ou t ies of the egio , a d it is used a d H d ologi al “e i es NMH“ hold pe iodi as a tool the eteo ologi al se i es a d as a Regio al Cli ate Outlook Fo u s RCOF to asis fo e pe ted i pa t s e a ios stakeholde s dis uss seaso al p e ipitaio p edi io s a d de isio - ake s Alfa o et al. . p odu ed all ou t ies. “i e , RCOFs ha e take pla e i a ious Lai A e i a ou t ies, i Ga ia-“ole a a d Ra i ez e plai that, i a efo t to p odu e seaso al p edi io p odu ts o de to p odu e the outlooks, RCOFs also a al ze IRI, . The ha e ee fu ded se e al hi d asts a d staisi al a al sis gi e ea h of i te aio al age ies ith the assista e of the NMH“ of the egio . I this o k, dist i uio lo al a d egio al e iies su h as the Regio al of RCOF eei g e ues ou t is: i Costa Wate Resou es Co itee CRRH i Ce t al Ri a, i Pa a a, i Guate ala, i El “al ado , A e i a Do oso & Ra i ez, ; Ga ia-“ole a i Ho du as, i Ni a agua, i Belize a d i & Ra i ez, . “i e , the Fo u is Me i o. o ga ized i Ce t al A e i a the CRRH, hi h is the te h i al se eta iat of the Ce t al A e i a Othe data used to p odu e the outlooks i Ce t al I teg aio “ ste o “ICA, a d is espo si le fo A e i a i lude the ost e e t e oluio of the oo di aio of a i iies elated to eathe a o alies a d sea su fa e te pe atu e fo e asts fo e asts, li ate, ate esou es, a d li ate of the T opi al Atla i a d Pa ii o ea s; su h ha ge assess e t i Belize, Costa Ri a, El i fo aio is o tai ed i : “al ado , Guate ala, Ho du as, Ni a agua a d Pa a a Ga ia-“ole a & Ra i ez, . Alfa o, • The o se ed alues of Muli a iate EN“O “ole , a d E ield add that ge e all , these I de MEI; Wolte & Ti i , . fo u s gathe ep ese tai es of the NMH“, as • The Pa ii De adal Os illaio PDO; Ma tua, ell as e e s of the s ie ii a d a ade i Ha e, )ha g, Walla e, & F a is, . o u it , ho o k o the ela o aio of • The Atla i Mulide adal Os illaio AMO; egio al a d lo al li ate fo e asts fo the e t E ield, Mestas-Nu ez, & T i le, . seaso . • The T opi al No th Atla i o se ed a o alies TNA; E ield & Alfa o, a d at osphe i The o je i e of these fo u s is to use aio al p essu e fo e ast. li ai e pe ie e to ela o ate a egio al • The ge e al i ulaio odel seaso al o se sus fo the li ate outlook. I Ce t al fo e asts. A e i a, p e ipitaio a u ulaio is the a ia le • The hi d p e ipitaio data of a alog data fo ge e all fo e asted fo the o ths follo i g a the fo e ast pe iod. pa i ula fo u . The fo e ast is p ese ted i a • The p o a iliies fo p e ipitaio s e a ios fo fo at that is useful fo the age ies i ol ed as the pe iod. 39 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS • The a al sis of a o i al o elaio o CCA also i luded the outlook aps of the a d ith the Cli ate P edi ta ilit Tool CPT; fo u s o ga ized the Wate Ce te Maso & Tippet, . fo the Hu id T opi s of Lai A e i a a d The • The Atla i a d Pa ii O ea s hu i a e Ca i ea CATHALAC i olla o aio ith seaso fo e ast. the CRRH Do oso & Ra í ez, . Outlook seaso s i these fo u s a e o all fo Ma - “i e , as e plai ed Maldo ado et al. Ju e-Jul MJJ , August-“epte e -O to e A“O , ate e e RCOF, eei gs ith dife e t a d De e e -Ja ua -Fe ua -Ma h DJFM so ioe o o i stakeholde s take pla e i o de to a u ulated p e ipitaio . stud the possi le li ate i pa ts of the outlooks o the Ce t al A e i a egio . A o di g to A o di g to Ga ía-“ole a a d Ra í ez , Ga ia-“ole a a d Ra i ez , the ai s the easo fo that sele io is ai l e ause of these eei gs a e to a al ze the efe ts, p e ipitaio pate s i Ce t al A e i a dei e i pa ts, a d li ai a ia ilit p oje io s i th ee pla i g seaso s: the p i e a i Ap il, the dife e t se to s i ludi g ag i ultu e, ate , post e a i August–“epte e , a d the apante o ishe ies, health a d ut iio , isk a age e t i te seaso i DJFM. RCOF o ga izes its outlooks a d e e g , a d to p odu e disaste p e e io so that the a disse i ate i fo aio to use s a d iigaio st ategies, a o di g to the li ate efo e the egi i g of ea h pla i g seaso . s e a ios p oposed at the e d of ea h fo u . A tuall , e eei gs p odu e updates of these CRRH tu s “easo al Cli ate Outlooks i to isk outlooks that i lude also Ap il a d No e e , to s e a ios used food- elated se to s to suppo t ate d the sta t a d the e d of the ai seaso . thei de isio s a d i i ize food i se u it . This We olle ted aps of MJJ seaso , aps is a o plished as a oo di ated efo t a ied of A“O, as ell as aps of DJFM. Addiio all out spe ialized e iies of “ICA, tu i g the the , a d Ju e-Jul -August aps p odu t i to se to al li ate isk s e a ios that e e i luded, alo g ith the “epte e - ould guide ea l a i gs a out a tual a d O to e -No e e o e. Outlook aps e e pote ial th eats to food se u it . o tai ed f o the CRRH a hi es. The o je i e of this o k is to assess the skill of All aps e e digitalized e losi g the egio s Ce t al A e i a RCOF aps. This assess e t p edi ted as Belo No al BN , Neut al N , is i po ta t si e the ai goal of the seaso al a d A o e No al AN . Those a e the th ee outlook is to p o ide i fo aio a d ad i e to atego ies used the RCOF fo the seaso al isk a age e t a d food se u it stakeholde s ai fall a u ulaio s igu e . a o di g to the egio al li ai p oje io s. As a esult, it is desig ed to e phasize the ost The RCOF outlook aps e e assessed usi g th ee ele a t i pa t a al sis a d fo eseea le efe ts, data sets. The i st dataset is f o gauge staio s. fo isk p e e io a d iigaio Ga ia-“ole a I this ase e o side ed a total of gauge & Ra i ez, . staio s ith o thl p e ipitaio o se aio s p o ided the NMH“ i Ce t al A e i a du i g a t ai i g o kshop o li ate p edi io , 2. Data and Methodology o ga ized the CRRH i Ju e i “a Jose, Costa Ri a. “taio lo aio s a e sho i igu e As a i st step, e olle ted all aps p odu ed . “i e ea h eteo ologi al staio has a disi t the RCOFs i Ce t al A e i a f o to . i e o e age, a o o i e se ies le gth as To i ease the sa pli g size, i the a al sis e dete i ed a o di g to the a aila ilit of data i 40 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 Figu e . E a ple of digitalizaio of the RCOF aps. The ap o tai ed i the RCOF do u e t fo MJJ is p ese ted i A , a d its digitalizaio e losi g the egio s p edi ted as Belo No al BN, o , Neut al N, ello o light o a d A o e No al AN, g ee is p ese - ted i B . “ou e: CRRH-“ICA. the dife e t staio s of igu e . The efo e, the TRMM B e sio algo ith , fo p e ipitaio sele ted i e se ies le gth o e s f o Ja ua ate esi ates e e hose . to Ma h . The - pe iod as used to al ulate the te ile th esholds a d - These TRMM esi ates o espo d to a -hou l to o pa e ith the RCOF aps. The gaps i a e age e te ed at the iddle of ea h -hou the i e se ies e e illed usi g the ethodolog pe iod i.e., ), ), ), ), ), ), ), a d ) . des i ed Alfa o a d “ole , hi h The i al B p odu t data a e a aila le at . o i es auto eg essi e odels a d E pi i al . ° spaial esoluio e te di g f o °“ to O thogo al Fu io s EOFs ethods. °N. Fo the p ese t stud , the e aluaio usi g the TRIMM data o e ed the - pe iod, The othe t o datasets a e f o the T opi al si e this a li itaio due to the sho te i e Rai fall Measu e e t Missio TRMM a d the spa of these data o pa ed to the a aila ilit Cli ate Haza ds G oup I f aRed P e ipitaio ith of staio data. I o de to t a sfo the satellite “taio s CHRIP“ . “i e so e a eas of Ce t al p e ipitaio data i to a dail f e ue , it as A e i a ha e o good gauge staio s o e age, e essa to e ge the -hou l data, o side i g ai l at the Ca i ea slope, e also used the the lo al i e. Ate that, seaso al p e ipitaio TRMM Huf a et al., a d the CHIRP“ esi ates e e al ulated fo g id poi ts o e Fu k et al., datasets to ha e full spaial the isth us. o e age o e the isth us, as addiio al sou es to assess the RCOF aps. The CHIRP“ dataset le ds data f o eathe staio s a d eathe satellites ith e t ao di a TRMM o ito s t opi al a d su t opi al a u a , p o idi g a detailed e o d of glo al p e ipitaio a d is a joi t satellite issio ai fall st et hi g a k o e tha ea s et ee the Naio al Ae o aui s a d “pa e http:// . o . o / / / / / Ad i ist aio NA“A a d the Japa Ae ospa e d ought-p edi io -ag i ultu e . The latest E plo aio Age JAXA . I this stud , the e sio e sio . spa s °“– °N a d all 41 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS Figu e . Lo aio of the ai gauge staio s used ed dots . lo gitudes , a d sta ts i to ea p ese t. pe siste e of the o se ed staio a o al CHIRP“ i o po ates . ° esoluio satellite p e ious to the RCOF seaso a d usi g a i age ith i -situ staio data to eate g idded seaso al fo e ast al a s ased o the Neut al ai fall i e se ies fo t e d a al sis a d seaso al atego . d ought o ito i g. “easo al p e ipitaio esi ates e e al ulated fo g id poi ts The CPT, ela o ated the I te aio al o e the isth us. Resea h I situte fo Cli ate a d “o iet IRI, Maso & Tippet, , htp://i i. olu ia.edu/ The assess e t of ea h fo u ap as do e ou -e pe ise/ li ate/tools/ pt/ , as hose usi g the sa e o se ed seaso al atego ies i.e. e ause it is o ada s i use fo ope ai e BN, N a d AN i the staio o se aio s, the seaso al li ate p edi io s i Ce t al A e i a TRMM a d CHIRP“ datasets. These o pa iso s the NMH“s. a e illust ated i Figu e . The ai fall gauge o se aio s e e also o pa ed ith a the As i the o k of Maldo ado, Rutge sso , Alfa o, Ca o i al Co elaio A al sis CCA output A ado , a d Cla e a , the e te ded odels usi g the Cli ate P edi ta ilit Tool e o st u ted sea su fa e te pe atu es CPT fo the sa e RCOF seaso s, usi g the ER““T , “ ith, Re olds, Pete so , & 42 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 La i o e, e e used as p edi to s i the suggested he e to a oid o e pa a ete isaio . CCA odels. The sea su fa e te pe atu e ““T The opi al o i aio of EOFs a d CCA odes a o alies e e o st u ted usi g a o i aio a e al ulated ea s of the good ess i de of o se ed data alo g ith odels a d histo i al ea Ke dall τ . The a i u possi le u e sa pli g g ids. This glo al data ase has a of CCA odes, ho e e , is dete i ed i st the ho izo tal esoluio of . . . i i u u e of EOFs et ee oth ields. The , ith the good ess skill, the a i u The ““T do ai ou ded °N- °“ a d u e of CCA odes is fou d fo the est it to °E- °W as o side ed i o de to aptu e a oid a o e pa a ete isaio i the odel Y the sig al of the ost i po ta t li ate a ia ilit = T·X, he e the ele e ts of a e the o di a odes fo the Ce t al A e i a isth us. These least-s ua es eg essio oei ie ts o puted a ia ilit odes a e El Niño “outhe Os illaio ith CCA, a d Y is the p edi ted alue of Y. The τ EN“O , the No th Atla i Os illaio NAO , as o puted usi g oss- alidaio odels ith PDO, AMO a d the TNA, hi h ha e sho to - o th i do si e to the RCOF seaso e ele a t i te s of ai fall li ate a ia ilit fo ea h staio i all the odels. It is o th Fallas-López & Alfa o a, . e io i g that, at the e d, the odels ould ot e essa il ha e EOF a d CCA odes. Mo thl The a o e CCA ethodolog is ased o ““T a o alies ields f o the o th efo e the Maldo ado et al. ; a d it is RCOF seaso e e a al zed as pote ial p edi to s i ple e ted a d su a ized as follo s: the lead-i e . Ea h e pe i e t as o du ted ith ields ““T a o alies, p edi to s a d seaso al the o se ed pe siste e of the ai gauge staio a u ulates, p edi ta ds a e i st edu ed e o ds du i g the p e ious t o o ths, e.g. p io ea s of p i ipal o po e t a al sis PCA to the RCOF seaso s a u ulates. to assu e sta ilit i the CCA pa a ete s. A a i u of EOFs a d CCA odes i the “u a izi g, si o pa iso e pe i e ts e e ilte i g stage a e allo ed. This th eshold is do e: RCOF aps s “taio s O se aio s, Figu e . E a ple of the A“O RCOF ap o pa iso ith the o se ed Belo No al BN, ed , Neut al N, ello a d A o e No al AN, g ee atego ies i A ai fall gauge staio s, B TRMM a d C CHIRP“ g id data. O l g id data poi ts o e la d at Ce t al A e i a isth us e e used fo these o pa iso s i B a d C , i ludi g the a eas of Belize, Guate ala, Ho du as, El “al ado , Ni a agua, Costa Ri a a d Pa a a. 43 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS RCOF aps s TRMM g id data, RCOF aps No , z is the su of the eighted f e ue ies s CHIRP“ g id data, CTP outputs s “taio i a pe fe t g oup of hits. If the p edi io s e e O se aio s, P e ious Mo th Pe siste e a do a d all the e pi i al f e ue ies of the s “taio O se aio s a d Al a s Neut al o i ge ta le te ded to the sa e alue z ) Fo e ast s “taio O se aio s. the Ge it s o e ould te d to ze o. O the othe ha d if e had a pe fe t p edi io the the The pe fo a e of the outlooks e e assessed aio z /z ould te d to o e a d the Ge it s o e usi g the “kill “ o e ““ a d the Ge it s o e ould te d to . As ith the ““, egai e alues Wilks, ; Maso & “tephe so , ased of the Ge it s o e ould i di ate that isses o a o i ge ta le fo BN, N a d AN do i ate ou a al sis. atego ies fo outlooks a d o se aio s Alfa o et al., . ““ t a sfo s the i fo aio that The s o es e e i st al ulated fo e e seaso al the Hit Rate HR oei ie t gi es, he e: outlook, o side i g all staio s o g id poi ts. This as do e to stud the RCOFs skill t ough i e. We o pa ed the s o e edia outlooks f o to ith those f o to , fij a e the o se ed o u e es i the to stud if a staisi al dife e e as o se ed. o i ge ta le a d is the total u e of The s o es e e also al ulated fo e e staio p edi io -o se aio pai s. a d fo all outlook seaso s, i o de to spaiall stud the RCOFs skill. We al ulated the ““ as: 3. Results Note that he a p edi io is o pletel a do Figu es a d sho the o plot of ““ a d Ge it ““ = , a d he the o espo de e is e a t s o e alues fo outlooks ade fo MJJ, A“O, DJFM P {“u ess}= ““ = , ea i g a pe fe t g oup a d all seaso s. Results f o igu es a d sho of hits. This last ase tells us that the e pi i al that all the o pa iso s et ee RCOFs aps a d p o a iliies of the s allest diago al a e ull. staio o se aio s la el had posii e edia Negai e alues of the ““ i di ate that isses alues. Usi g g id data ases f o TRMM o CHIRP“, do i ate i ou a al sis. fo a full isth us o e age, did ot s ste ai all i p o ed o deg aded the s o es edia alues Ge it s o e is si ila to the ““ ith the e epio la els a d he the e e o pa ed ith that o the p edi io s ha i g t o e o eous the staio o se aio esults. Highe P s o e te iles a e u h o e do g aded tha those alues e e o se ed i all o pa iso s et ee that o l ha e o e, a d e a e p ess it as: CTP outputs a d staio o se aio s la el a d the highest s o es e e fo the MJJ outlook. Co pa iso s et ee p e ious RCOFs o th pe siste e a d staio o se aio s la el also he e z is the su of the eighted f e ue ies; had posii e edia a d P alues i all seaso s, fo the posii e o elaio et ee p edi io s ut the e e ot s ste ai all ete tha a d o se aio s: those o tai ed et ee RCOFs aps s staio o se aio s a d et ee CTP outputs s staio z = . * f – . * f – . * f – . * f + . o se aio s. Most of the posii e outlie s i Figs. * f – . * f – . * f – . * f + . * f d a d d a e fo the A“O seaso s. Outlooks ased 44 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 Figu e . Bo plot of ““ alues fo outlooks ade fo A MJJ, B A“O, C DJFM a d D all seaso s. Bla k aste isks a e fo the outlie s ehi d the hiske s P + o P – . IQR fo uppe o lo e outlie s . Bo plot o pa iso s a e fo : RCOF aps s “taio s O se aio s, RCOF aps s TRMM g id data, RCOF aps s CHIRP“ g id data, CTP outputs s “taio O se aio s, P e ious Mo th Pe siste e s “taio O se aio s a d Al a s Neut al Fo e ast s “taio O se aio s. Figu e . “a e as igu e ut fo Ge it s o e alues. 45 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS o a Al a s Neut al fo e ast had the o se o pa a et i test, ut all of the dife e es e e edia esults i all ases see la el i Figu es posii e, e ept fo ““ alues i igu e fo DJFM a d . ““ a d Ge it s o e alues o pa i g outlooks. Ha i g a posii e dife e e i Figu es i di idual outlook aps a d o se ed ai fall a d esults, ea s that isses i the - gauge alues fo MJJ, A“O, DJFM a d all seaso s DJFM outlooks a e ai l o e atego . Highest a e p ese ted i igu es a d , espe i el . s o es e e o se ed fo the A“O outlook. The o st outlooks usi g the ““ e e o se ed fo We do ot p ese t the o pa iso s et ee RCOFs the JJA , the i st o e ele ated i Ce t al aps a d TRMM o CHIRP“ g idded data e ause A e i a, a d fo A“O usi g the Ge it the did ot s ste ai all i p o ed o deg aded s o e, ai l e ause isses t o atego ies the s o es edia alues he o pa ed ith do i ated that last outlook o pa iso . F o the staio o se aio esults i igu es a d . igu e , it as o se ed that . , . , . a d No e of the edia alue dife e es et ee . % of the ““ alues a e posii e fo the MJJ, the - a d - as staisi all A“O, DJFM a d all seaso s outlooks. O se ed sig ii a t u de the Ma -Whit e -Wil o o alues fo Ge it s o e a e . , . , . a d Figu e . ““ alues o pa i g i di idual RCOF aps a d o se ed ai fall gauge alues fo A MJJ, B A“O, C DJFM a d D all seaso s. Ho izo tal solid li es a e the edia alue fo - a d - pe iods, espe i el . 46 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 Figu e . “a e as igu e ut fo Ge it s o e alues. . %, espe i el igu e . Noi e that DJFM López a d Alfa o a, , Maldo ado et seaso outlooks ha e the o st assess e t s o es al. ; , ut just Fallas-López a d Alfa o a d that, i ge e al, the pe e tage of posii e a, p odu ed p edi i e s he es fo Ge it s o e alues a e g eate tha those of the the d seaso . ““, e ept fo A“O seaso outlooks. The spaial dist i uio of Ge it s o e o pa i g This ould ele t that isses o e atego RCOF aps a d the ai gauge o se aio s is do i ated those outlook o pa iso s, e ept p ese ted i Figu e . It is o se ed that A“O fo A“O. The lo e ““ a d Ge it s o es fo DJFM sho ed the est s o e alues e ept fo the No th ould ea that d i e s odulai g the ai Ca i ea slope of Ce t al A e i a, this egio seaso i Ce t al A e i a t pi all f o Ap il as e te ded fo MJJ, i hi h the est s o es to No e e , Ta lo & Alfa o, a e ete e e o se ed at the “outh a d No th Pa ii u de stood that those odulai g du i g the d slope. DJFM had the lo est skill alues, e ept fo seaso t pi all f o De e e to Ma h, Ta lo so e lo es a oss the isth us. & Alfa o, . P edi i e s he es fo dife e t aspe ts of the ai seaso e e studied These pate s a e ai tai ed he CPT outputs E ield a d Alfa o , Alfa o a , Fallas- a d ai gauge o se aio s a e o pa ed Figu e 47 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS Figu e . “paial dist i uio of Ge it s o e o pa i g RCOF aps a d ai gauge o se aio s. ut the a ea ith skillful s o e alues i eased The pe e tage of egai e ““ a d Ge it s o e as ell as the s o e alues, e e fo DJFM. alues fo all the o pa iso aps is p ese ted i ta le . Table 1. Percentage of stations or grid points having negative SS (A) or Gerrity (B) score values for: 1) RCOF maps vs Stations Observations, 2) RCOF maps vs TRMM grid data, 3) RCOF maps vs CHIRPS grid data, 4) CTP outputs vs Station Observations, 5) Previous Month Persistence vs Station Observations and 6) Always Neutral Forecast vs Station Observations (A) (B) MJJ ASO DJFM All MJJ ASO DJFM All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 Figu e . “paial dist i uio of Ge it s o e o pa i g CPT outputs a d ai gauge o se aio s. Noi e that RCOF aps did ot ha e pe e tages of the p o le s ide iied du i g the RCOFs is that g eate tha % i a seaso a d that outlooks e ause the e is ot a sta da dized ethodolog ased o al a s eut al atego sho ed the fo p odu i g the fo e ast, the o t i uio s highest pe e tage alues i al ost all the ases. f o dife e t ou t ies a esult i a disjoi ted Outlooks alues ased o pe siste e, suppo t its egio al fo e ast that is so ei es ph si all i lusio also o CCA p edi i e s he es that had i o siste t a oss polii al o de s. Mo eo e , it the lo est pe e tages. appea s that the staisi s ehi d the used tools a e ot fa ilia to so e of the pa i ipa ts, su h that the aio al li ate fo e asts a e so ei es 4. Discussion ased o l o su je i e e aluaio s. This is suppo ted i so e a the esults p ese ted Alfa o et al. e io ed that s ie ii a d i igu es a d . a ade i o u iies ha e dis ussed e tai p o le s that a ise du i g the de elop e t of Noi e that highest P s o e alues e e o se ed the fo u s a d ho the esea h esults a e fo all the o pa iso s et ee CTP outputs e.g. ete used to i p o e the fo u s p odu ts. O e a o je i e tool a d staio o se aio s. “o e 49 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS of the oots of the p o le s e io ed a o e t ough the i e, a d the t a s issio of a ui ed ha e ee ide iied: i the esou es of so e k o ledge is ot al a s gua a teed to the e e i situio s a e li ited to the oui e tasks a d RCOF pa i ipa ts the fo e o es. Co s ious o l a s all po io of thei udget is allo ated of this last p o le , CRRH has e ou aged the fo esea h a d apa it uildi g; a d ii the e sa e people pa i ipaio i the RCOFs, ut the ha e ee e fe oppo tu iies fo t ai i g o poli ies a out this issue a e dife e t t ough the the o epts e ui ed fo the RCOFs. pa i ipa ts i situio s. To alle iate the last p o le e io ed i the A o di g to Ga ía-“ole a a d Ra í ez , p e ious pa ag aph, CRRH has ee e a i e o e i po ta t futu e goal is to e po e RCOFs a out t ai i g the RCOFs pa i ipa ts. A o di g to to use o e o je i e tools esults f o igu es , the i fo aio gi e this Co itee, t ai i g , a d suppo t the idea a ou d this goal su h a i iies e e o du ted to RCOFs pa i ipa ts i as o e spe ii a d detailed e o e daio s Ce t al A e i a igu e , si e the a e i ha ge that ould allo it to i p o e the ualit of the of the RCOFs p o ess, e.g. ea . outlook s e a ios i the dife e t se to s. A othe goal is to st e gthe the elaio ship et ee A i iies e e ai l le tu es a d o kshops i stakeholde s a d de isio - ake s so as to allo tools a d staisi al o epts useful fo li ate CRRH to o e efe i el ide if e d-use s seaso al fo e ast. The Ce te fo Geoph si al ul e a ilit to li ate a ia ilit . The add that Resea h CIGEFI at the U i e sit of Costa Ri a CRRH e isio s eai g a e tool that ould had also olla o ated ith the apa it uildi g allo the to easu e the e o o i alue of the a i iies of Ce t al A e i a RCOF e io ed i fo aio p odu ed th ough the COF, as ell as a o e, a d also dist i ui g its pape s p odu io the alue of the eteo ologi al se i es. It ould o su je ts of seaso al li ate p edi io , li ate also e useful to e a le to easu e the dife e e a ia ilit , li ate ha ge a d the es elated to et ee de isio s ade ith a d ithout the d i e s that odulates li ate i Ce t al A e i a “easo al Cli ate Outlooks, su h as ho a Ga ía-“ole a & Ra í ez, . people ha e ot ee afe ted due to that de isio . If su h a tool ould e de eloped, it ould help Ho e e , o e of the edia alue dife e es i te est those ho a pa o o t i ute to the et ee the - a d - e e se i e. I that se se, Mo e o de eloped staisi all sig ii a t igu es a d , i spite e e tl a tool to assess the e o o i alue of that all the dife e es e e posii e, e ept fo ““ alues i igu e fo DJFM outlooks. It ea s that k o ledge has ot had a u ulai e efe t i the RCOF pa i ipa ts th ough the last ea s as igu e suggested. This ould e e plai ed addi g t o p o le s to the o es e io ed at the egi i g of this se io . The i st o e is elated to the fa t that the esou es of so e i situio s a e li ited to the oui e tasks, so the a ot allo ate e ough i e fo o ki g o goi g deepl i the tools i hi h the Figu e . Cu ulai e u e of t ai i g a i i- e e t ai ed. The se o d o e ould e elated ies fo the Ce t al A e i a RCOF pa i ipa ts, ith the fa t that RCOF pa i ipa ts ha e ha ged Ja ua - Ju e “ou e: CRRH . 50 Assessment of Central America Regional Climate Outlook Forum maps, 1998-2013 the li ate a ia ilit i fo aio i dife e t RCOF aps, ““T a o alies of su ou di g o ea s egio al so ioe o o i se to s. a e po de ed. The i lusio of othe p edi to ields o tools as i Muñoz, Díaz-Lo ató , Chou io This goal is i po ta t, si e esults f o igu es a d “to k , ould i p o e the p edi ta ilit a d , sho ed that outlooks ased o a Al a s i those egio s, alo g ith a ete u de sta di g Neut al fo e ast had the o st edia esults fo of li ate a ual le a ia ilit , espe iall at all ases, so RCOFs aps ha e a agg egate alue the Ce t al A e i a Ca i ea slope “ae z & to de isio - ake s. Noi e fo e a ple that . % A ado , . Noi ed also that this slope sho s of the Ge it s o es i igu e d a e posii e, the s allest de sit of staio s fo logisi easo s, ea i g that the a e skillful ost of the i es so i p o i g the u e of staio s the e ould a d that isses a e o all o e atego . o t i ute also to i p o e the k o ledge of li ate a ia ilit a d p edi io o e those lo Addiio all , all the o pa iso s et ee RCOFs skillful egio s. I spite that TRMM a d CHIRP“ aps a d staio o se aio s had posii e g id data sets a gi e full spaial o e age, ai fall edia alues i igu es a d . gauge staio o se aio s a e sill e essa fo the alidaio of those datasets. A i po ta t aspe t i the egio is the eaio of a Regio al Cli ate “e i e. This is poi ted out Ga ia-“ole a a d Ra i ez as a ajo goal 5. Conclusions ot just fo Ce t al A e i a ut fo a e te ded egio that i ludes Mesoa e i a. A o di g to Ga ia-“ole a a d Ra i ez , the Ce t al A e i a RCOFs is a i situio alized It ea s to i situio alize the se i e, he e go e e tal p o ess, a tuall follo i g the the e ould e pe so el dedi ated o l fo Wo ld Meteo ologi al O ga izaio ´s Glo al the eaio of li ate p odu ts i ludi g the F a e o k of Cli ate “e i es. “easo al Cli ate Outlooks a d thei asso iated outputs. These outlooks ould i lude p odu ts The o luded that all Ce t al A e i a elated ith the o set a d the e d of the ai ou t ies e eit f o the “easo al RCOF, hi h seaso e.g. E ield & Alfa o, ; Fallas-Lopez is issued th ee i es a ea , a d all ou t ies a & Alfa o, a , e t e e et o d e e t easil a esses it. It is egio all a d aio all o u e es alo g ith the o u e e of ai fo used. Ope aio al li ate se i es a e at the da s e.g. Maldo ado et al., , the Mid- o e of this RCOF p o ess. “u e D ought egi i g a d i te sit e.g. Maldo ado et al., ; Fallas-Lopez & Alfa o, The “easo al Cli ate Outlook is a i te aio al a o ea , a i u a d i i u pu li good p o ided the RCOF. Both p i ate te pe atu es Alfa o, ; Fallas-Lopez a d se to s a d Ce t al A e i a go e e ts use it Alfa o a o g othe s. fo de isio - aki g. The “easo al Cli ate Outlook does p o ote f ee a d ope e ha ge of li ate- “paial dist i uio s of s o es p ese ted i igu es ele a t o se aio al data hile espe i g a d sho ed that i ge e al ost of the egio aio al a d i te aio al data poli ies. The do ha e skillful lo es, ut espe iall du i g the fa ilitate a d st e gthe athe tha dupli ai g A“O seaso a d o the Pa ii slope of Ce t al i fo aio a d RCOF as uilt th ough use – A e i a. Regio s ith egai e skill s o e alues p o ide pa t e ships that i lude all stakeholde s. a ep ese t a eas i hi h li ate d i e s odulai g p e ipitaio a e ot ell u de stood. Ou esults sho ed that RCOFs aps ha e a Noi e that du i g the o se sus p o ess fo the agg egate alue to de isio - ake s, e ause 51 TÓPICOS METEOROLÓGICOS Y OCEANOGRÁFICOS the ha e skillful i fo aio ost of the i es. 7. References Addiio all , outlooks ased o a Al a s Neut al fo e ast had the o se edia skill esults fo Alfa o, E. a . Uso del a álisis de o ela ió all ases, this i fo aio is useful fo de isio - a ó i a pa a la p edi ió de la p e ipita ió ake s, ea i g that de isio s take ithout plu ial e Ce t oa é i a. Re ista I ge ie ía o side i g li ate outlook i fo aio is o se Co peii idad, , - . tha those take i a ou t the RCOF aps ost Alfa o, E. . P edi ió Cli ái a de of the i es. la Te pe atu a “upe i ial del Ai e e Ce t oa é i a. A ie i o, , - . The i lusio of o je i e tools a d gi e the a o e spe ii eight i the o se sus ap Alfa o, E. & “ole , J. . Des ip ió de dos étodos de elle ado de datos ause tes e p odu io , ould i ease the RCOFs skill. Fo se ies de ie po eteo ológi as. Re ista e a ple, i ou stud highest skill s o e alues de Mate ái as: Teo ía Apli a io es, e e o se ed fo all the o pa iso s et ee , - . outlooks ased o pu e CTP outputs a d staio o se aio s. RCOF pa i ipa ts a e al ead fa ilia Alfa o, E.; “ole , J. & E ield, D. . Uso de u a a d t ai ed ith these ki d of tools, e.g. CPT o Ta la de Co i ge ia pa a Apli a io es Cli ái as Use of a Co i ge Ta le fo o i ge ta les, a d so e ou t ies al ead Cli ai Appli aio s . Gua a uil, E uado : p ese t thei seaso al outlooks ased o the . E“POL/ FUNDE“POL. A othe aspe t is that egio s ha i g the lo est Do oso, M. & Ra í ez, P. . Lai A e i a de sit of staio s sho ed also lo e skill s o e a d the Ca i ea . Repo t o the Cli ate alues. The efo e, i p o i g the u e of Outlook Fo u s fo Mesoa e i a. I : Copi g ai fall staio s i those egio s, i ludi g the ith the li ate: A step Fo a d, Wo kshop ai te a e of a tual et o k, ould i ease Repo t. A uli-stakeholde e ie of Regio al Cli ate Outlook Fo u s, P eto ia, the k o ledge of li ate a ia ilit a d the d i es “outh Af i a pp. - . that odulated p e ipitaio the e, those aspe ts ould esult i ete p edi ta ilit s he es o e E ield, D.B. & Alfa o, E. . The depe de e a e te ded a ea of Ce t al A e i a helpi g of Ca i ea ai fall o the i te a io of de isio aki g p o esses. the t opi al Atla i a d Pa ii O ea s. Jou al of Cli ate, , - . doi: htp://d .doi.o g/ . / - < :TDOCRO> . .CO; 6. Acknowledgments E ield, D.B.; Mestas-Nu ez, A.M. & T i le, P.J. The autho s ould like to e og ize the pa ial . The Atla i Mulide adal Os illaio suppo t of the follo i g U i e sit of Costa Ri a a d its elaio ship to ai fall a d i e p oje ts du i g this esea h: V.I. -B - lo s i the o i e tal U.“. Geoph si al UCR, CONICIT-MICITT , -B - , -B - Resea h Lete s, , - . doi: , -B - a d -A - . Also to Luis F. . / GL Al a ado, IMN, Costa Ri a a d Pat i ia Ra i ez, Fallas-López, B. & Alfa o, E. a . Uso de CRRH-“ICA, fo thei o e ts a d help ith he a ie tas estadísi as pa a la p edi ió the a us ipt. 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