PUBLIC OPINION ON CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS IN CHILE A SOCIAL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS ADEQUATE TRANSFERS POLICY NOTE Con el apoyo de PUBLIC OPINION ON CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS IN CHILE A SOCIAL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS ADEQUATE TRANSFERS Merike Blofield and Juliana Martínez Franzoni1 1 Merike Blofield, University of Hamburg (merike.blofield@uni-hamburg.de); Juliana Martínez Franzoni, Universidad de Costa Rica-Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (Juliana.Martinez@ucr.ac.cr). POLICY NOTE This study was conducted with research funds from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), the German Foundation for Scientific Research, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, allocated to Merike Blofield and Juliana Martínez Franzoni, respectively. * We are grateful for the valuable contributions of Elizabeth Zechmeister for the organization of the field work. We also thank Jorge Rincón (German Institute for Global and Area Studies-GIGA), the administrative staff of the GIGA and the University of Costa Rica, as well as the regional technical counterpart of UNICEF for their substantive contributions to the preparation of this Note. 303.38 P766 Public Opinion on Cash Trasfers for Children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus uspports adequate transfers/ Merike Blofield and Juliana Martínez Franzoni; Merike Blofield, traductora.--1.rst edition.--San José, Costa Rica. UCR, IIS-Ediciones Digital file: download.--(Collection: Policy Note) ISBN: 978-9968-861-23-6 1. Public opinion 2. Cash transfer 3. Children poverty 4. Adolescents poverty 5. Food assistance 6. Latin America 7. Chile I. Blofield, Merike II. Martínez Franzoni, Juliana. Design and layout: Lucía González and Gabriela Fonseca A. Translated from spanish: Merike Blofield. Editing and revising: Gabriela Fonseca A., Merike Blofield and Juliana Martínez. Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon and decades of evidence show that cash transfer programs can provide simple and effective protection against poverty, especially extreme poverty. A nationally representative survey conducted in Chile during May and June 2022 indicates broad public support (90%) for a cash transfer program for children and adolescents. In addition, 97% support setting the value of the transfers to at least the basic food basket, a value 8.5 times higher than the amount in 2022. Opinion is divided on the eligibility criteria: half of the respondents support extending the transfers to most or all children, while the other half support focusing on those living in poverty. MESSAGE Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 1 Poverty in Chile is disproportionately high among the younger population: CASEN 2022 data indicate that the monetary poverty rate for children and adolescents was over ten percent while for those aged 60 years or over it was just three percent; CEPAL data indicate a poverty rate of twenty percent among those under 18 years of age (CASEN 2023; CEPAL 2022). Child and adolescent poverty is a violation of the rights of children and adolescents and has devastating effects on their present and future lives. Decades of studies document the impact of material deprivation early in life on the lack of opportunities later in life, along with a huge waste of human capital for society (Black et al., 2017; Berens et al., 2019; Jensen et al., 2017). While poverty is a multidimensional challenge, evidence also shows that access to regular cash transfers can provide a simple and effective protection against poverty, especially against extreme poverty. Such transfers, by helping families meet basic needs, especially food, have been shown to improve child 2 The survey was conducted between May 26 and June 15 by Datavoz and included nine hundred people. The appendix summarizes the sociodemographic characteristics of the nationwide sample. health, education and development, as well as overall well-being, representing an immensely beneficial investment for them, their families and society (UNICEF, 2017; Bastagli et al., 2016; Save the Children, 2018; Cecchini, Villatoro and Mancero, 2021). Based on this evidence, there is a broad consensus among scholars, multilateral agencies, and policy officials regarding the importance of these transfers as an instrument of social protection, even if they debate the appropriate scope and adequacy of such transfers. In this context, it is surprising how little is known about how the public perceives cash transfers, both in Chile and in Latin America in general. Does the public support cash transfers? Based on a national representative telephone survey conducted between May and June 2022, this policy brief contributes to filling this gap2. 1. WHY DO CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS MATTER? Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 2 The Chilean government has had a non-contributory cash transfer program since the institution of Chile Solidario in the early 2000s. Subsequently, the program changed its name and design, and targeted low-income families with children and adolescents, and people with disabilities (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia, 2019; Ministerio del Trabajo y Previsión Social, 1981). By 2019, the unconditional transfer, called Subsidio Único Familiar (SUF), was estimated to reach approximately 31% of those under 18 years of age (Blofield, Pribble and Giambruno, 2023)3. By early 2020, the value of the transfer, 13,155 pesos, was equivalent to one-quarter (25.6%) of the per capita urban extreme poverty line4. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Chilean government made a significant effort to strengthen social protections for the population. In June 2020, the government established an emergency cash transfer program aimed at all households with informal or low incomes and few assets or savings. It did so through the Household Social Registry (Registro Social de Hogares), a system that consolidates information on all households in the first four income quintiles; that is, 80% of Chilean households. This registry serves as a gateway for accessing various government social programs. Emergency transfers automatically reached all households already in the SUF program. The transfers achieved broad coverage over-all, and their value was equal to or above the extreme poverty line (Blofield, Pribble, and Giambruno, 2023). Subsequent studies show the effectiveness of the transfers in reducing poverty and extreme poverty (ECLAC, 2021). 3 This percentage was derived by combining the number of recipients in the ECLAC database (2023) and the population 0-17 years of age (2021) in the United Nations database (2023). 4 Calculated based on ECLAC’s definition of the urban extreme poverty line in Chile (Blofield, Giambruno and Filgueira 2020, p. 89). 5 Including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. At the beginning of 2021, the government reduced both coverage and adequacy of the transfers but increased them again in April until the end of that year. Blofield, Pribble and Giambruno (2023) show, in a comparison of ten countries in the region during the first year of the pandemic5, that the generosity of the transfers in Chile was the highest. Our survey corroborates this finding in relation to coverage. Figure 1 shows whether respondents or their households received cash or food transfers from the government during the two pandemic years (between May 2020 and May 2022 when the survey was conducted), comparing Chile with the other countries surveyed. Seventy-two percent of respondents in Chile said that they or someone in their household had received cash assistance from the government in the past two years, and 49% said that they or someone in their household had received food assistance from the government (see Figure 1). These figures are significantly higher than those of the other countries, except for food transfers in Guatemala. 2. CURRENT GOVERNMENT POLICY Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 3 Figure 1. In the last two years, did you or anyone in your household receive cash assistance/ food assistance from the government? Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Covid survey, families and social programs in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Peru, 2022. Figure 2 shows the extent of government cash and food assistance to households with and without children and adolescents, given the higher prevalence of poverty among the former. Figure 2 shows that both cash and food assistance reached households with children and adolescents at higher rates than households without children. Chile also stands out in this regard, as assistance reached proportionally more households with children: these households were 10.3 percentage points more likely to receive cash transfers and 22.6 percentage points more likely to receive food transfers. Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 4 Figure 2. In the last two years, did you or anyone in your household receive cash assistance/ food assistance from the government? Source: Own elaboration based on data from Covid survey, families and social programs in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Peru, 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, government policy has focused on job creation. At the same time, the more generous transfers to families with children ended. According to the most recent data, 31% of children and adolescents received non-contributory transfers through the existing social protection system (SUF), with values even lower than at the beginning of 2020 (ECLAC, 2019-2021; United Nations, 2023). In August 2022, the value of the SUF transfer per under-age recipient was, monthly, USD 18.63 (16 418 Chilean pesos) (Government of Chile, 2022). The per capita extreme poverty line was, however, USD 159.29 (140,352 Chilean pesos) so the transfer was equivalent to just under 12% of this extreme poverty line, less than half the value in early 2020, before pandemic- related increases. Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 5 The survey asked whether cash transfers should be a right. Three quarters (72.4%) of those surveyed agreed with the statement, indicating that there is a strong base of social support for the existence of a statutory cash transfer program. In addition, the survey contains a series of questions on attitudes towards cash transfers aimed at four different population groups: the elderly, children, the unemployed and immigrants. Figure 3 shows overwhelming majority support for cash transfer programs aimed at the elderly (92.9%) and children (90.6%). For the unemployed, support remains high (70%), while for immigrants, support is almost equally divided between those who agree with a program (43.4%) and those who do not (46.4%). Figure 3. Would you agree or disagree with the government having a cash transfer program for...? Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Covid survey, families and social programs in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Peru, 2022. 3. PUBLIC OPINION ON CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 6 3.1 COVERAGE OF CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS The survey contains additional questions to elucidate preferences on the scope and coverage that transfer programs should have, both for the general population and for children and adolescents. As shown in Figure 4, respondents support broader eligibility criteria for cash transfers for children and adolescents than for the general population. Seventy percent are in favor of granting cash transfers to at least all children in poverty. This percentage is the result of adding up the support for transfers to poor children (19.4%), to the majority of children (10.6%) and to all children (38.4%). Only 30.2% support restricting transfers to children in extreme poverty. In addition, almost half of the respondents support extending cash transfers to at least the majority of children. Support for cash transfers to the general population is lower, but still substantial, at 62.1% for at least those in poverty (including those in poverty, the majority, and everyone) and 36.1% for those in extreme poverty. Figure 4. When cash transfer programs exist, who should receive them? Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Covid survey, families and social programs in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Peru, 2022. Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 7 3.2 ADEQUACY OF CASH TRANSFERS FOR CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS 6 The extreme poverty line is estimated on the basis of a basic food basket, so this provides a way to measure the preferences of the population in relation to the extreme poverty line. To evaluate preferences on the optimal value or generosity of cash transfers, the survey presented respondents with four concrete options that form a scale from least to most generous transfer amounts. These options include a transfer that is equivalent to: (i) half of a basic food basket6, (ii) a basic food basket, (iii) a basic food basket plus the cost of clothing, and (iv) a basic food basket plus the cost of clothing and other basic necessities. Figure 5 shows the distribution of preferences among the four categories. When adding the three that include at least one basic food basket (FB, 23%; a FB and clothing, 14%; and a FB, clothing and other basic needs, 60%), an overwhelming majority, 97%, believe that, if the government were to make these cash transfers available, they should cover at least the value of a basic food basket. Only 2% would set the value at half the value of a food basket and thus half the extreme poverty line. One percent did not respond. Figure 5. What should cash transfers to children and adolescents cover? Source: Own elaboration based on data from the Covid survey, families and social programs in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Peru, 2022. Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 8 The public opinion survey conducted shows broad support for a more solid program of transfers to children and adolescents than the one that currently exists in Chile. In terms of coverage, 70% of respondents support transfers to at least all children and adolescents in poverty. The current coverage of SUF cash transfers exceeds the poverty rate, as it reaches 31% of children and adolescents, significantly higher than the poverty rate of 10 to 12 percent in the CASEN data and also higher than the 20 percent poverty rate of CEPAL. The transfers also reach low-income households close to the poverty line and, therefore, classified as vulnerable. However, almost 50% of those surveyed support the expansion of coverage to include either the majority of or all children and adolescents. This would imply at least 20% more coverage than at present (31%), to reach at least half of the population of children and adolescents. Doubling the current coverage would mean reaching 62% of this population. In terms of the value of the transfers, public opinion overwhelmingly supports a value much higher than the current amount. Almost everyone (97%) supports setting the transfers to at least the extreme poverty line (basic food basket), which would be 8.5 times the amount in 2022. In sum, strengthening the current cash transfer program would not only be a technically sound measure, but would also enjoy broad public support. According to the estimate made by ECLAC in 2021, the fiscal cost of a universal transfer for children and adolescents that takes into account the current benefits of the Family Grant, Family Allowance and Permanent Family Contribution, would have a cost of 0.68% of projected GDP in 2025 (Vargas, Robles and Espíndola, 2021). This benefit would be equivalent to 25% of the poverty line, which in turn is estimated to be close to the cost of the basic food basket (Vargas, Robles and Espíndola, 2021, pp. 55 and 67). Based on this public opinion support, the government could have the political space to consider, first, expanding the program’s coverage to reach at least 60% of children and adolescents, or even 80%, which would be equivalent to universalizing the access of children and adolescents currently in the Social Household Registry. Second, it could have the political space to increase the value of the transfer to cover a basic food basket per child and adolescent. This expansion in social protection coverage would be consistent with the evidence regarding the overwhelming effectiveness of these programs in improving the well-being and human capital of children and adolescents, while also being popular in existing public opinion. Finally, the state of public opinion presented here bolsters the government proposal to eliminate child poverty. 4. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 9 Number of people interviewed between May 26th and June 15th, 2022: 900 Gender Woman 51% Men 49% Age 18 to 24 years 12% 25 to 34 years 23% 35 to 44 years 19% 45 to 54 years 20% 55 to 64 years 16% 65 years and older 10% Occupation Works 57% Works and studies 3% Retired 10% Unemployed 11% Only studies 4% Dedicated to unpaid domestic work 13% Does not study or engage in paid or unpaid domestic work 1% Education No education or incomplete primary 10% Complete primary or incomplete secondary 24% Secondary school complete 36% Incomplete or complete technical 7% Incomplete or complete university 21% Household composition Without presence of children under the age of 15 years 51% With presence of minors under the age of 15 years 46% Without the presence of older adults 61% With presence of older adults 39% Source: National telephone survey, GIGA-UCR with the support of the German Research Foundation; by Datavoz. APPENDIX Characteristics of the sample in Chile Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 10 Bastagli, F.; Hagen-Zanker, J.; Harman, L.; Barca, V.; Sturge, G.; Schmidt, T. y Pellerano, L. (2016). Cash transfers: what does the evidence say? A rigorous review of programme impact and of the role of design and implementation features. Londres: Overseas Development Institute. Berens, A. E. y Nelson, C. (2019). Neurobiology of fetal and infant development: Implications for infant mental health. En C. H. (Ed.), Handbook of Infant Mental Health (Capítulo 3). Nueva York: Guilford Press. Black, M.; Walker, S.; L.C.H. Fernald, C. A.; DiGirolamo, A.; Lu, C., McCoy, D., . . Grantham-McGregor, S. (2017). Early childhood development coming of age: science through the life course. The Lancet, 389(10064), 77-90. Blofield, M.; Giambruno, C. y Filguiera F. (2020). Policy expansion in compressed time: Assessing the speed, breadth and sufficiency of post-COVID-19 social protection measures in 10 Latin American countries ECLAC. Social Policy Series : 235. Blofield, M.; Pribble, J. y Giambruno, C. (2023). The Politics of Social Protection during Times of Crisis: COVID-19 and Cash Transfers in Latin America. Elements in Politics and Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. CASEN (2023). Resultados pobreza por ingresos Casen 2022. https://observatorio.ministeriodesarrollosocial. gob.cl/encuesta-casen-2022 CEPAL (2022). Panorama Social de América Latina y el Caribe. Cecchini, S.; Villatoro, P. y Mancero, X. (2021). The impact of non-contributory cash transfers on poverty in Latin America. Revista de la CEPAL, 134, 7-32. CEPAL. (2021). Panorama Social de América Latina. Santiago: CEPAL. CEPAL. (2023). Base de datos de programas de protección social no contributivos. Santiago: CEPAL. Fernald, Lia CH; Gertler, P. y Neufeld, L. N. (2008).Role of cash in conditional cash transfer programmes for child health, growth, and development: an analysis of Mexico’s Oportunidades. The Lancet, 371: 828-37. Gobierno de Chile. (2022). Chile Atiende. https:// www.chileatiende.gob.cl/fichas/33112-subsidio- familiar-suf Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia. (2020). Encuesta CASEN sectores, pobreza. https://datasocial. ministeriodesarrollosocial.gob.cl Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia. (2019). Monitoreo y Seguimiento Oferta Pública 2019. https:// www.dipres.gob.cl/597/articles-206749_doc_pdf.pdf Ministerio del Trabajo y Previsión Social (MINTRAB). (1981). Ley 18.020. Gobierno de Chile. Palomo, N.; Faulbaum, L. V.; Machado, A. C.; Rolon, C.; Soares, F. V.; Rubio, M., . . . Escaroz, G. (2022). Protección social y respuesta al COVID-19 en América Latina y El Caribe: Innovaciones en los sistemas de registro y pago. Brasilia y Ciudad de Panamá: IPC, UNICEF. Santos, R.; Farías, C. y Robles, C. (2023). “La protección social de los ingresos en América Latina y el Caribe Debates sobre opciones de política”, Documentos de proyectos. CEPAL. Save the Children. (2018). The Role of Cash Transfers in Improving Child Outcomes. Londres: Save the Children. UNICEF y Save the Children. (2020). Children in monetary poor households and COVID-19: Technical Note UNICEF and Save the Children. https://bit. ly/3GpfiqR BIBLIOGRAPHY Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 11 UNICEF. (2017). Making Cash Transfers Work for Children and Families. Child Poverty and Social Protection. Nueva York: UNICEF. UNICEF. (2020). COVID-19 presiona particularmente a hogares con niños, revela encuesta ENCOVID19 Infancia. https://www.unicef.org/mexico/comunicados-prensa/ covid-19-presiona-particularmente-hogares-con- ni%C3%B1os-revela-encuesta-encovid19 ENCOVID19 Infancia. https://www.unicef.org/ mexico/comunicadosprensa/covid-19-presiona- particularmente-hogarescon-ni%C3%B1os-revela- encuesta-encovid19 UNICEF. (2021). 3 de cada 5 niños y niñas que perdieron un año escolar en el mundo durante la pandemia viven en América Latina y el Caribe. https:// uni.cf/3dwlmRD United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2023). Data Portal, custom data acquired via website. Nueva York. https:// population.un.org/DataPortal/ World Bank. (2020). Datos. https://datos. bancomundial.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS Public opinion on cash transfers for children and adolescents in Chile: A social consensus supports adequate transfers 12 German Research Foundation With the support of