Assessment of the Spatial Variation in the Occurrence and Intensity of Major Hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere
artículo original
Fecha
2023-01-04Autor
Martínez Romero, Luis Carlos
Romero, David
Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Metadatos
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Major hurricanes are a critical hazard for North and Central America. The present study
investigated the trends of occurrence, affectation, and intensity of major hurricanes in the North
Atlantic and Northeast Pacific Oceans using GIS applications to the IBTrACS database. The study
period ranged from 1970 to 2021. Tropical cyclones were sampled using a grid composed of 3.5◦
hexagonal cells; in addition, trends were obtained to assess the effect of long-term variability from
natural phenomena and climate change. Critical factors influencing these trends at the oceanic scale
and for each hexagon were determined using multivariate and multiscale analysis by the application
of stepwise analysis and the related ANOVA. The integrated variables related to atmospheric and
oceanographic oscillations and patterns, i.e., spatial variables resampled with the same analysis unit
and climate indices. Our results indicated marked spatial areas with significant trends in occurrence
and intensity. Additionally, there was evidence of linear changes in the number of major hurricanes
and an increase in the maximum annual speed of +1.61 m s−1
in the North Atlantic basin and
+1.75 m·s
−1
in the Northeast Pacific, reported for a 10-year period. In terms of occurrence, there were
increases of 19% and 5%, respectively, which may be related to ocean warming and natural variability
associated with oceanic and atmospheric circulation
External link to the item
10.3390/cli11010015Colecciones
- Meteorología [509]
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