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dc.creatorVano, Julie A.
dc.creatorUdall, Bradley
dc.creatorCayan, Daniel R.
dc.creatorOverpeck, Jonathan T.
dc.creatorBrekke, Levi D.
dc.creatorTapash, Das
dc.creatorHartmann, Holly C.
dc.creatorHidalgo León, Hugo G.
dc.creatorHoerling, Martin
dc.creatorMcCabe, Gregory J.
dc.creatorMorino, Kiyomi
dc.creatorWebb, Robert S.
dc.creatorWerner, Kevin
dc.creatorLettenmaier, Dennis P.
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-08T15:41:33Z
dc.date.available2015-07-08T15:41:33Z
dc.date.issued2014-01
dc.identifier.citationhttp://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00228.1es_ES
dc.identifier.issn1520-0477
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10669/15064
dc.descriptionArtículo -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, 2014es_ES
dc.description.abstractThe Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamflow changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamflows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicases_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia Universityes_ES
dc.language.isoen_USes_ES
dc.publisherBulletin of the American Meterorological Society 95(1): 58-81es_ES
dc.sourceBulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(1): 59-78es_ES
dc.subjectstreamflow projectionses_ES
dc.subjectwater managementes_ES
dc.subjectchanging climatees_ES
dc.subjectClimate variabilityes_ES
dc.titleUnderstanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflowes_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.typeArtículo científicoes_ES
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00228.1
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)es_ES


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